Fig. 2

Correlation analysis of the tree ring width standard chronology (SC) and instrumental climate factors (1960–2022) (a). Comparison of precipitation and reconstructed results for the instrumental period (b). Reconstruction of precipitation changes on the central Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau over the period 1814–2022, with the dark red shaded zones denoting persistent drought prior to the Du Wenxiu Uprising (1856–1873), and red triangles indicating the 10 driest years (c). Runs analysis and estimated return time of droughts (d), and wet periods (e). Contours of the return time are derived from copula functions for the joint probability of the severity and duration of wet and drought events.