Table 7 Regional and farm-type heterogeneity in welfare effects.

From: Distributional welfare effects of agricultural subsidy reform in rural China using macro-micro simulation

Region/province

Baseline scenario

Reform scenario

Targeted scenario

Grain production status

 

Income change (%)/welfare effect (yuan)

Income change (%)/welfare effect (yuan)

Income change (%)/welfare effect (yuan)

 

Eastern region

- Jiangsu

1.2/300

2.1/520

2.5/650

Non-major

- Shandong

1.5/380

2.4/610

2.8/720

Major

Central region

- Henan

1.8/480

2.8/750

3.3/950

Major

- Hubei

1.6/420

2.6/690

3.1/870

Mixed

Western region

- Guizhou

2.2/550

3.6/1010

5.0/1520

Non-major

- Sichuan

2.0/500

3.2/890

4.2/1250

Mixed

Northeast region

- Heilongjiang

1.6/410

2.5/670

3.0/850

Major

Northwest Region

    

- Shaanxi

1.9/470

3.0/820

3.8/1150

Mixed

Farm size effects (national average)

- Small farmers (<5 mu)

1.8/450

2.9/780

4.0/1200

All regions

- Medium farmers (5–10 mu)

1.4/360

2.3/620

2.8/800

All regions

- Large farmers (>10 mu)

1.1/280

1.9/510

2.2/620

All regions

Employment effects by region

- Eastern rural-to-non-farm (%)

0.0

3.2

2.8

 

- Central rural-to-non-farm (%)

0.0

2.8

2.3

 

- Western rural-to-non-farm (%)

0.0

1.9

1.5

 

- Northeast rural-to-non-farm (%)

0.0

2.5

2.0

 

- Northwest rural-to-non-farm (%)

0.0

2.2

1.8

 
  1. Welfare effects are measured as equivalent variation in yuan per household. Major grain areas refer to counties designated as primary grain production zones by the Ministry of Agriculture. Small farmers are defined as those cultivating less than 5 mu (0.33 hectares), medium farmers cultivate 5–10 mu (0.33–0.67 hectares), and large farmers cultivate more than 10 mu (0.67 hectares). Employment effects represent the percentage of rural labor transitioning to non-agricultural sectors.
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