Fig. 4: Yearly variation in EPEs under SSP5-8.5. | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science

Fig. 4: Yearly variation in EPEs under SSP5-8.5.

From: Dynamics of intensification of extreme precipitation events over the Arabian Peninsula derived from CMIP6 simulations

Fig. 4

Future changes in EPEs (%) relative to the historical mean (1985–2014) across the Arabian Peninsula (AP), the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), and six sub-regions (panel (a)) under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. The graphs display EPE changes in the CMIP6 models and RSRA (RS-R) at the thresholds of (b) R95p and (c) R99p. The sub-regions are defined based on wet-season rainfall variability and spatial rainfall autocorrelation, closely aligning with homogeneous regions in the KSA identified by Almazroui et al.41 using a principal component analysis with multiple variables. The six subregions of the AP are as follows: Northern (NTH), Interior (INT), Southwest (SW), Central South (CSTH), Empty Quarter (EMQ), and Eastern (EST). The curves in panels (b) and (c) represent the multi-model means of projected changes from the historical average (1985–2014), smoothed using a 10-year running average. The shaded area around each curve indicates the likely range (half deviation) of projected changes in the corresponding CMIP6 model. The black dashed line shows the historical change in RSRA.

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