Fig. 6: Historical and projected large-scale circulations over the AP. a Wet-season historical means of sea level pressure (SLP) overlaid with the 850 hPa horizontal wind vectors.

b Vertical wind at 850 hPa overlaid with 200 hPa horizontal wind vectors. c The 200 hPa zonal wind component, with the black line indicating the core position of the subtropical jet (STJ). Panels (d–f) show composite anomalies during historical extreme events, while (g–i) depict anomalies during far-future extreme events (2070–2099). The STJ position was determined by extracting the maximum wind velocity between latitude bands 10°N and 40°N at all longitudes from 0°E to 80°E (see Attada et al.⁴⁵). The black, blue, and purple lines in panels (c), (f), and (i) indicate the core STJ positions during the historical mean wet period, historical extreme precipitation event (EPE) days, and far-future EPE days, respectively.