Fig. 4: Intensified El Niño-like convection projected by the 23 CMIP6 models.

Future changes are calculated as the differences between the period 2070–2099 under the SSP585 scenario and the period 1981–2010 under the historical simulations. Future changes in the multi-model mean of 23 CMIP6 models for a annual rainfall (units: mm day⁻¹), and b eddy sea surface temperature (SST), equal to SST removing zonal mean (units: K). Hatched areas in (a, b) show where at least 19 models (>82% of the total 23 models) project the changes with the same signs. c Inter-model regressions of eddy SST changes onto rainfall changes over the equatorial central Pacific (CP). Significant regression coefficients at the 95% confidence level are hatched in (c). Time series of the multi-model averaged number of d above-normal rainfall events averaged over the equatorial CP, and e below-normal rainfall events averaged over the Maritime Continent during the period 1979–2099 under the historical simulations (1979–2014) and SSP585 scenario (2015–2099). Gray shadings in (d, e) indicate the range of one standard deviation deviated from the multi-model mean of the 23 models. The equatorial CP (10°S–10°N, 170°E–120°W) is outlined by the red box in (a).