Fig. 5: Intensified global climate relevance of El Niño-like convection projected by CMIP6 models.

Projected changes are calculated as the differences between the period 2070–2099 under the SSP585 scenario and the period 1981–2010 under the historical simulations. Projected changes in the in-degree centrality to global anomalous pressure events (units: ×1000) summed for a two networks based on above-normal rainfall events, and b two networks based on below-normal rainfall events. Projected changes in out-degree centrality differences (shadings; units: ×100) between high-pressure-included network and low-pressure-included network, from c above-normal rainfalls over the equatorial central Pacific (CP), and from d below-normal rainfalls over the Maritime Continent (MC). Hatched areas in (a–d) show where at least 19 models (>82% of the total 23 models) project the changes with the same signs. The MC (10°S–10°N, 90°–160°E) and equatorial CP (10°S–10°N, 170°E–120°W) are outlined by red boxes in (a–d).