Fig. 1: The historical shift of the SON tropical hydrological cycle edge.
From: Seasonal emergence of human-caused expansion of the boreal tropical hydrological cycle
The evolution of the SON a Hadley cell edge (ϕΨ500) and c dry zone edge (ϕP−E), relative to the 1980-1999 period, in reanalyses mean (black, through 2019) and CMIP6 mean (red, through 2099 under the SSP5-8.5 scenario). Thin lines show the evolution of individual reanalyses and shading the two standard deviations across models. The 1979–2014 trends in b ϕΨ500 and d ϕP−E plotted against the \({\phi }_{{{{\rm{PSL}}}}_{{{\rm{y}}}}}\) trends across CMIP6 models (red dots); their correlation appears in the upper left corners. Red line shows the linear regression and shading the two standard deviations (Methods). The blue square shows the observed \({\phi }_{{{{\rm{PSL}}}}_{{{\rm{y}}}}}\). The orange, black and purple squares respectively show the mean of the CMIP6, reanalyses and the constrained ϕΨ500 or ϕP−E. Errorbars show the 5–95% range (1.64 standard deviations).
