Fig. 3: Observed characteristics of 2023 and historical strong El Niño events.

a Percentiles of SST anomalies in SON 2023 relative to autumn seasons of 1980–2023 (shading; unit: %). Gray contours represent the 99th percentile. b Composited velocity potential (contours) and geopotential height anomalies (shading; unit: m) at 200 hPa during SON for historical strong El Niño years (1982, 1997, 2015). c Same as (b), but for 2023. Brown and blue contours indicate high-level convergence and divergence, respectively. Thick brown (blue) contours represent 2 × 106 (−2 × 106) m2/s. Contour interval is 1 × 106 (−1 × 106) m2/s.