Fig. 4: Emergent constraints of the response to sea ice loss based on neck region winds.

Relationship across models between the DJF present-day neck region winds (u_neck,pd), and the DJF response to future sea ice loss of a the stratospheric polar vortex, b the tropospheric zonal wind and c the 850hPa jet latitude. The small red dots and pink error bars represent model values and their corresponding 5-95% confidence interval. The black line is the linear fit (with the correlation coefficient r and its p-value shown on the bottom left), the dark shading the corresponding 5–95% confidence interval and the light gray shading the 5–95% confidence interval accounting for the uncertainty in model values. The big red dot and error bar show the (unconstrained) multi-model mean and 5-95% uncertainty. The vertical green line and shading show the observed value and 5–95% confidence interval. The big green dot and error bar show the emergent constrained value and the corresponding 5–95% uncertainty. See main text and Methods for details.