Table 2 Development of the two-step risk stratification model

From: Who may omit locoregional radiotherapy in de novo metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma: a failure-pattern–based strategy in the immunotherapy era

Characteristics

Univariate Cox analysis

Multivariate Cox analysis

   
 

HR (95% CI)

P value

HR (95% CI)

P value

β value

Points

(A) Analysis of risk factors for distant failure in the non-LRRT cohort. Six variables selected through LASSO regression were included in the multivariate analysis. The β coefficients of these variables, representing their relative contributions to the model, were rounded to the nearest integer and assigned as corresponding scores.

No. of metastatic organs (>1 vs 1)

2.492 (1.558–3.989)

<0.001

1.762 (1.056–2.939)

0.030

0.566

1

No of metastatic lesions (>3 vs ≤3)

3.368 (1.960–5.787)

<0.001

 

0.24

  

Liver metastasis (yes vs no)

1.803 (1.153–2.280)

0.010

 

0.57

  

Baseline LDH level, U/L (≥500 vs <500)

3.371 (2.061–5.514)

<0.001

2.763 (1.561–4.892)

<0.001

1.016

1

EBV DNA level after first-line immunochemotherapy (detectable vs undetectable)

4.293 (2.712–6.798)

<0.001

3.198 (1.963–5.209)

<0.001

1.163

1

Response evaluation after first-line immunochemotherapy (SD/PD vs CR/PR)

5.020 (3.038–8.294)

<0.001

4.675 (2.715–8.051)

<0.001

1.542

2

(B) Analysis of risk factors for locoregional failure in the non-LRRT cohort. Two variables selected through LASSO regression were included in the multivariate analysis. The β coefficients of these variables, representing their relative contributions to the model, were rounded to the nearest integer and assigned as corresponding scores.

EBV DNA level after one cycle (detectable vs undetectable)

3.447 (1.850–6.422)

<0.001

2.416 (1.240–4.706)

0.010

0.882

1

The initial assessment of locoregional response (DpR ≤70% vs >70%)

3.481 (1.941–6.241)

<0.001

2.517 (1.349–4.697)

0.004

0.923

1

  1. LRRT locoregional radiotherapy, LASSO least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, LDH lactate dehydrogenase, EBV Epstein-Barr virus, CR complete response, PR partial response, SD stable disease, PD progressive disease, DpR depth of response, defined as the percentage of tumor shrinkage from the baseline tumor burden to the timepoint of assessment.