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Targeting net-zero emissions while advancing other sustainable development goals in China

Abstract

The global net-zero transition needed to combat climate change may have profound effects on the energy–food–water–air quality nexus. Accomplishing the net-zero target while addressing other environmental challenges to achieve sustainable development is a policy pursuit for all. Here we develop a multi-model interconnection assessment framework to explore and quantify the co-benefits and trade-offs of climate action for environment-related sustainable development goals in China. We find that China is making progress towards many of the sustainable development goals, but still insufficiently. The net-zero transition leads to substantial sustainability improvements, particularly in energy and water systems. However, the co-benefits alone cannot ensure a sustainable energy–food–water–air quality system. Moreover, uncoordinated policies may exacerbate threats to energy security and food security as variable renewables and bioenergy expand. We urge the implementation of pragmatic measures to increase incentives for demand management, improve food system efficiency, promote advanced irrigation technology and further strengthen air pollutant control measures.

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Fig. 1: Projected evolution of sustainable development indicators in China.
Fig. 2: Sustainable development of the AFOLU sector in China.
Fig. 3: Water supply and withdrawal in China.
Fig. 4: Air quality improvement and health benefits in China.
Fig. 5: Economic analysis of the energy–food–water–air quality system transition in China.

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Data availability

The historical socio-economic data used in this study are from the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The base year (2019) energy data are based on the energy balance in ‘China Energy Statistics Yearbook 2020’, and reference is made to publicly available data from the International Energy Agency and the China Electricity Council. Cost projections are available in Supplementary Data 4. Unit-level data for the power sector were obtained from the Global Coal Plant Tracker (July 2022)77 and integrated with cooling technology and capacity factor data for each unit from the China Electricity Council78. The scenario data for the CWatM model are available via ISIMIP at https://data.isimip.org/. GLOBIOM-G4M emulation data are also open source and available via GitHub at https://github.com/iiasa/GLOBIOM-G4M_LookupTable. The inputs related to the GAINS-Asia model can be obtained for free by registering on the official website (https://gains.iiasa.ac.at/models/gains_models4.html).

Code availability

The China TIMES 2.0 and China-TIMES-30PE models are based on the TIMES framework, which is open source and available via GitHub at https://github.com/etsap-TIMES/TIMES_model. GAINS-Asia v4.03 provides the online simulation platform, which can be accessed after user registration at https://gains.iiasa.ac.at/models/gains_models4.html. CWatM v1.06 is also an open-source model and is available via GitHub at https://github.com/iiasa/CwatM. The open-source version of the GLOBIOM-G4M model is under preparation. Potential collaborators may be given access to pre-release versions after communicating with the GLOBIOM modelling team. In this study, commercial software such as VEDA 2.0, GAMS 39.3, CPLEX 22.1.0, Gurobi 10.0.1 and ArcGIS Pro 3.2.2 is used. Public software such as Python 3.11 and R 4.2.2 is used for data processing and result visualization.

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Acknowledgements

This study was supported by the Ministry of Education Project of Key Research Institute of Humanities and Social Sciences at Universities (22JJD480001 to W.C.), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (71690243 and 51861135102 to W.C.), the Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of China (2018YFC1509006 to W.C.), the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme ENGAGE (821471 to W.C., V.K., E.B., P.R., B.N., M.A., K.R.) and the China Scholarship Council (202106210195 to S.Z.). The SDG icons used in the figures and tables were created by the United Nations: https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/. The content of this publication has not been approved by the United Nations and does not reflect the views of the United Nations or its officials or Member States.

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Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Contributions

S.Z., W.C., Q.Z., V.K., E.B., P.R., M.A. and K.R. conceived and designed the study. S.Z., W.C., V.K. and E.B. developed the framework. S.Z. and W.C. formulated the China TIMES 2.0 model. Q.Z. and W.C. conducted downscaling work with the China-TIMES-30PE model. S.Z., W.C., Q.Z., V.K., E.B., P.R., M.A. and K.R. conducted the data search. S.Z., Q.Z., E.B., B.N. and P.R. conducted the simulations. S.Z., W.C., Q.Z., V.K., E.B., P.R., M.A. and K.R. conducted the analysis. S.Z. wrote the first draft of this article. S.Z., W.C., Q.Z., V.K., E.B., P.R., M.A. and K.R. contributed to the revision and improvement of the article.

Corresponding authors

Correspondence to Wenying Chen or Volker Krey.

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The authors declare no competing interests.

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Nature Sustainability thanks Eric Larson, Jiashuo Li and Alexandros Nikas for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

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Extended data

Extended Data Fig. 1 Overall analysis framework for this study.

The schematic diagram shows the input & output, scenario definition and model linkage relationships for this study. The research work is centered on the energy system model China TIMES 2.0, with bi-directional soft links to the land use model GLOBIOM-G4M, and model data interaction with the water model CWatM. The China TIMES 2.0 model passes CO2 mitigation pathways into the China-TIMES-30PE model, thus downscaling to the provincial level and then connecting to the air quality model GAINS-Asia 4. By combining the sustainability constraints with the climate mitigation targets, the three scenarios in this study fully reflect the synergistic effects of climate action and can also indicate solutions for the integrated transition of China’s energy-food-water-air quality system. Credit: icons from the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment).

Extended Data Fig. 2 Concentrations maps of PM2.5 from natural and anthropogenic sources in 2030 and 2050.

The figure shows the concentration maps of PM2.5 from natural and anthropogenic sources for the years 2030 and 2050. a Concentrations maps of PM2.5 from natural and anthropogenic sources in 2030, b Concentrations maps of PM2.5 from natural and anthropogenic sources in 2050.

Extended Data Fig. 3 Multiple model interconnection mechanism.

The figure shows the interconnection framework of the national energy system model (China TIMES 2.0), the provincial energy system model (China-TIMES-30PE), the land use simulation model (GLOBIOM-G4M), the water management model (CWatM), and the air quality model (GAINS-Asia 4).

Extended Data Table 1 Summary of scenario definition and model assumption
Extended Data Table 2 Climate zones and provincial abbreviations for the 31 provincial administrative regions of mainland China

Supplementary information

Supplementary Information (download PDF )

Supplementary Notes 1–7, Tables 1–4 and Figs. 1–9.

Reporting Summary (download PDF )

Supplementary Data 1 (download XLSX )

Detailed assumptions about CLE strategy in the GAINS-Asia model.

Supplementary Data 2 (download XLSX )

Detailed assumptions about MFR strategy in the GAINS-Asia model.

Supplementary Data 3 (download XLSX )

Key assumptions of the application rates of emission control measures in the GAINS-Asia model.

Supplementary Data 4 (download XLSX )

Cost assumptions for power plants, hydrogen production and energy storage in the China TIMES 2.0 model.

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Zhang, S., Chen, W., Zhang, Q. et al. Targeting net-zero emissions while advancing other sustainable development goals in China. Nat Sustain 7, 1107–1119 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-024-01400-z

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