Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

  • Article
  • Published:

Alarming patterns of mature forest loss in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest

Nature Sustainability volume 8, pages 256–264 (2025)Cite this article

Subjects

Abstract

The Brazilian Atlantic Forest is a global biodiversity hotspot that harbours a high number of endemic species and provides important ecosystem services. However, a long history of deforestation means that only 24% of its original forest cover remains and studies are needed to examine the spatial and temporal patterns of forest loss to better understand the effectiveness of current laws in curbing deforestation in this important biome. Here we provide a comprehensive quantitative and qualitative time-series analysis of mature forest loss within the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. From 2010 to 2020, we detected 14,401 deforestation polygons, resulting in a loss of 186,289 ha, most of it with a high likelihood of illegality. These losses occurred mainly in small-sized patches on private lands for agricultural expansion, but also in protected areas and Indigenous lands. Deforestation is concentrated in two hotspots that involve different agricultural actors and land-use change processes. This pattern could lead to species extinctions, ecosystem service losses and a weakened capacity to address climate change, thus challenging the effectiveness of mechanisms currently used to counter deforestation. Implementing further incentive, protection and enforcement measures could aid in progress towards zero deforestation in this critically important habitat.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Buy this article

  • Purchase on SpringerLink
  • Instant access to the full article PDF.

USD 39.95

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Fig. 1: Limits defined by the Atlantic Forest protection law and deforestation locations from 2010 to 2020.
Fig. 2: Overall deforestation area and rate analysed for land tenure types from 2010–2020.
Fig. 3: Land use and cover observed in deforestation polygons in each land tenure type across the Atlantic Forest.
Fig. 4: Deforestation hotspots in the Atlantic Forest.
Fig. 5: Deforestation and land use and cover in small, medium and large private properties.

Similar content being viewed by others

Data availability

The datasets generated during and/or analysed during the current study are available via Zenodo at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13774392 (ref. 65). Source data are provided with this paper.

References

  1. Global Forest Review (World Resources Institute, 2023); https://research.wri.org/gfr/latest-analysis-deforestation-trends (2023).

  2. Portner, H. Q. et al. IPBES-IPCC co-sponsored workshop report on biodiversity and climate change. Vol. 115 (2021).

  3. Richardson, K. et al. Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries. Sci. Adv. 9, eadh2458 (2023).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Flores, B. M. et al. Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system. Nature 626, 555–564 (2024).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  5. Dean, W. A Ferro e Fogo—A História e a Devastação da Mata Atlântica Brasileira (Cia da Letras, 1995).

  6. Destaques do Mapeamento Anual da Cobertura e Uso da Terra no Brasil 1985 a 2021: Mata Atlântica (MapBiomas, 2022).

  7. Banks-Leite, C. et al. Using ecological thresholds to evaluate the costs and benefits of set-asides in a biodiversity hotspot. Science 345, 1041–1045 (2014).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  8. Rosa, M. R. et al. Hidden destruction of older forests threatens Brazil’s Atlantic Forest and challenges restoration programs. Sci. Adv. 7, eabc4547 (2021).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  9. Myers, N., Mittermeler, R. A., Mittermeler, C. G., Da Fonseca, G. A. B. & Kent, J. Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities. Nature 403, 853–858 (2000).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  10. Strassburg, B. B. N. et al. Strategic approaches to restoring ecosystems can triple conservation gains and halve costs. Nat. Ecol. Evol. 3, 62–70 (2018).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. UN Recognizes 10 Pioneering Initiatives that are Restoring the Natural World (UNEP, 2022); https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/press-release/un-recognizes-10-pioneering-initiatives-are-restoring-natural-world

  12. Lei 11.428, de 22 de Dezembro de 2006. Dispõe Sobre a Uilização e Proteção da Vegetação Nativa do Bioma Mata Atlântica e dá Outras Providências – Lei da Mata Atlântica (Diário Oficial da República Federativa do Brasil, 2006).

  13. Ribeiro, M. C. et al. The Brazilian Atlantic Forest: how much is left, and how is the remaining forest distributed? Implications for conservation. Biol. Conserv. 142, 1141–1153 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Atlas dos Remanescentes Florestais da Mata Atlântica 2021-2022 (SOS Mata Atlântica and INPE, 2022).

  15. Rezende, C. L. et al. From hotspot to hopespot: an opportunity for the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Perspect. Ecol. Conserv. 16, 208–214 (2018).

    Google Scholar 

  16. Faria, D. et al. The breakdown of ecosystem functionality driven by deforestation in a global biodiversity hotspot. Biol. Conserv. 283, 110126 (2023).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Bellard, C. et al. Vulnerability of biodiversity hotspots to global change. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 23, 1376–1386 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Ribeiro Prist, P. et al. Roads and forest edges facilitate yellow fever virus dispersion. J. Appl. Ecol. 59, 4–17 (2022).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Scarano, F. R. & Ceotto, P. Brazilian Atlantic Forest: impact, vulnerability, and adaptation to climate change. Biodivers. Conserv. 24, 2319–2331 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Guedes Pinto, L. F. & Voivodic, M. Reverse the tipping point of the Atlantic Forest for mitigation. Nat. Clim. Change 11, 364–365 (2021).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Joly, C. A., Metzger, J. P. & Tabarelli, M. Experiences from the Brazilian Atlantic Forest: ecological findings and conservation initiatives. New Phytol. 204, 459–473 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Tilman, D. et al. Habitat destruction and the extinction debt. Nature 371, 65–66 (1994).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. de Lima, R. A. F. et al. Comprehensive conservation assessments reveal high extinction risks across Atlantic Forest trees. Science 225, 219–225 (2024).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Gases de Efeito Estufa no Brasil (SEEG, 2024); https://seeg.eco.br/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/SEEG-RELATORIO-ANALITICO-12.pdf

  25. Lopes, B. S. et al. How does land use cover change affect hydrological response in the Atlantic Forest? Implications for ecological restoration. Front. Water 4, 998349 (2022).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  26. de Mello, K. et al. Riparian restoration for protecting water quality in tropical agricultural watersheds. Ecol. Eng. 108, 514–524 (2017).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. Costa, B. et al. Evidence of time-lag in the provision of ecosystem services by tropical regenerating forests to coffee yields. Environ. Res. Lett. 18, 025002 (2023).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. Saturni, F. T., Jaffé, R. & Metzger, J. P. Landscape structure influences bee community and coffee pollination at different spatial scales. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 235, 1–12 (2016).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  29. Pinto, L. F. G. et al. Food Production in the Atlantic Forest (SOS Mata Altântica, 2022).

  30. Catto, A. et al. Tragédia no litoral de SP: mortes na Vila Sahy ocorreram no limite da área onde prefeitura permitiu ocupação. G1. (Globo, 2023); https://g1.globo.com/sp/sao-paulo/noticia/2023/02/24/tragedia-no-litoral-norte-de-sp-mapa-do-g1-mostra-o-rastro-de-destruicao-e-morte-na-vila-sahy-epicentro-do-desastre.ghtml

  31. Caballero, C. B. et al. Transformation of Brazil’s biomes: the dynamics and fate of agriculture and pasture expansion into native vegetation. Sci. Total Environ. 896, 166323 (2023).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  32. Crouzeilles, R. et al. There is hope for achieving ambitious Atlantic Forest restoration commitments. Perspect. Ecol. Conserv. 17, 80–83 (2019).

    Google Scholar 

  33. Piffer, P. R. et al. Turnover rates of regenerated forests challenge restoration efforts in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Environ. Res. Lett. 17, 045009 (2022).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  34. Dupin, M. G. V. et al. Land use policies and deforestation in Brazilian tropical dry forests between 2000 and 2015. Environ. Res. Lett. 13, 035008 (2018).

  35. Espírito-Santo, M. M. et al. Sustainability of tropical dry forests: two case studies in southeastern and central Brazil. For. Ecol. Manage. 258, 922–930 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  36. Mohebalian, P. M. et al. Deforestation in South America’s tri-national Paraná Atlantic Forest: trends and associational factors. For. Policy Econ. 137, 102697 (2022).

  37. Relatório Anual de Desmatamento 2021 (MapBiomas, 2022); https://alerta.mapbiomas.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/17/2024/05/RAD2021_DESTAQUES_FINAL_rev1.pdf

  38. Gavioli, F. R. Território, Paisagem e Fragmento: Análise Multiescalar das Dinâmicas de Supressão Regular e Irregular de Vegetação Nativa no Estado de São Paulo. PhD thesis, UFSCar (2024).

  39. Sparovek, G. et al. Asymmetries of cattle and crop productivity and efficiency during Brazil’s agricultural expansion from 1975 to 2006. Elem. Sci. Anthrop. 6, 15 (2018).

    Google Scholar 

  40. Ribeiro, V. & Guedes Pinto, L. F. China and EU risk importing illegal soy from Brazil’s Atlantic Forest. TRASE (12 April 2023); https://trase.earth/insights/china-and-eu-risk-importing-illegal-soy-from-brazil-s-atlantic-forest

  41. de Mello, K. et al. Achieving private conservation targets in Brazil through restoration and compensation schemes without impairing productive lands. Environ. Sci. Policy 120, 1–10 (2021).

  42. de Faria, V. G. et al. O Código Florestal na Mata Atlântica. Sustent. Deb. 11, 1–44 (2021).

  43. Ruggiero, P. G. C. et al. The Brazilian intergovernmental fiscal transfer for conservation: a successful but self-limiting incentive program. Ecol. Econ. 191, 107219 (2022).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  44. Ruggiero, P. G. C. et al. Payment for ecosystem services programs in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest: effective but not enough. Land Use Policy 82, 283–291 (2019).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  45. Pacheco, A. & Meyer, C. Land tenure drives Brazil’s deforestation rates across socio-environmental contexts. Nat. Commun. 13, 5759 (2022).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  46. Clemente, C. M. S. et al. Estimates of deforestation avoided by protected areas: a case study in Brazilian tropical dry forests and Cerrado. Landsc. Res. 45, 470–483 (2020).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  47. Pfaff, A. et al. Protected areas: impacts on Brazilian Amazon deforestation: examining conservation-development interactions to inform planning. PLoS ONE 10, e0129460 (2015).

  48. Cabral, A. I. R. et al. Deforestation pattern dynamics in protected areas of the Brazilian Legal Amazon using remote sensing data. Appl. Geogr. 100, 101–115 (2018).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  49. Tagliari, M. M. et al. Disrupting a socio-ecological system: could traditional ecological knowledge be the key to preserving the Araucaria Forest in Brazil under climate change? Climatic Change 176, 2 (2023).

  50. Zorek, B. E., Biswas, S., Brum, F. T. & Carlucci, M. B. How much Araucaria Mixed Forest remains? Novel perspectives on conservation status based on satellite imagery and policy review. Biol. Conserv. 296, 110723 (2024).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  51. Graziano Ceddia, M., Gunter, U. & Corriveau-Bourque, A. Land tenure and agricultural expansion in Latin America: the role of Indigenous Peoples’ and local communities’ forest rights. Glob. Environ. Change 35, 316–322 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  52. Garnett, S. T. et al. A spatial overview of the global importance of Indigenous lands for conservation. Nat. Sustain. 1, 369–374 (2018).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  53. Benzeev, R. et al. Formalizing tenure of Indigenous lands improved forest outcomes in the Atlantic Forest of Brazil. PNAS Nexus 2, pgac287 (2022).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  54. Sparovek, G. et al. Who owns Brazilian lands? Land Use Policy 87, 104062 (2019).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  55. Calaboni, A. et al. The forest transition in São Paulo, Brazil: historical patterns and potential drivers. Ecol. Soc. 23, 7 (2018).

  56. Metzger, J. P., Lewinsohn, T. M., Joly, C. A., Verdade, L. M. & Rodrigues, R. Brazilian law: full speed in reverse? Science 329, 276–277 (2010).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  57. Strassburg, B. B. N. et al. Global priority areas for ecosystem restoration. Nature 586, 724–729 (2020).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  58. Guedes Pinto, L. F., Ferreira, J. & Berenguer, E. Governance lessons from the Atlantic Forest to the conservation of the Amazon. Perspect. Ecol. Conserv. 5, 1–5 (2022).

    Google Scholar 

  59. Decreto nº 6660, de 21 de novembro de 2008. Regulamenta dispositivos da Lei nº 11428, de 22 de dezembro de 2006, que dispõe sobre a utilização e proteção da vegetação nativa do Bioma Mata Atlântica (2008).

  60. Helmer, E. H., Brown, S. & Cohen, W. B. Mapping montane tropical forest successional stage and land use with multi-date Landsat imagery. Int. J. Remote Sens. 21, 2163–2183 (2000).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  61. IBGE Manual Técnico da Vegetação Brasileira (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística, 2012).

  62. Maurano, L. E. & Adami, M. Ferramentas Web-GIS para avaliar exatidão de mapeamento de uso e cobertura da terra no Cerrado brasileiro. In Simpósio Brasileiro De Sensoriamento Remoto 2017 Vol. 18, 462–469 (INPE, 2017).

  63. Adami, M. et al. A web platform development to perform thematic accuracy assessment of sugarcane mapping in South-Central Brazil. Remote Sens. 4, 3201–3214 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  64. De Azevedo, T. R. et al. SEEG initiative estimates of Brazilian greenhouse gas emissions from 1970 to 2015. Sci. Data 5, 1800451 (2018).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  65. Amaral, S. et al. Dataset, analyses and figures for the paper “Alarming patterns of mature forest loss in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest”. Zenodo https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13774391 (2024).

Download references

Acknowledgements

This work results from the cooperation agreement (01340.005517/2017-53) between Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research (INPE) and the SOS Mata Atlântica Foundation for the development of the project ‘Annual Update of the Atlas of Atlantic Forest Remnants’. We thank INPE researchers L. Maurano and C. Rennó, who supported the process of validating, discussing and statistically analysing the data and the NICFI Satellite Data Program for providing Planet-NICFI imagery. This work was also supported by the Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior–Brasil (CAPES) under Finance Code 001.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Remote Sensing Postgraduate Program (PGSER), Coordination for Education, Research and Outreach (COEPE), Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research (INPE); Earth Observation, São Paulo, Brazil

    Silvana Amaral & Bruno Vargas Adorno

  2. Earth Observation and Geoinformatics Division (DIOTG), Earth Sciences General Coordination (CGCT), Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research (INPE), São Paulo, Brazil

    Silvana Amaral & Gabriel Crivellaro Gonçalves

  3. Department of Ecology, Institute of Biosciences, Institute of Advanced Studies, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil

    Jean Paul Metzger

  4. Department of Geography, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil

    Marcos Rosa

  5. Fundação SOS Mata Atlântica, São Paulo, Brazil

    Luis Fernando Guedes Pinto

Authors
  1. Silvana Amaral
    View author publications

    Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Jean Paul Metzger
    View author publications

    Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Marcos Rosa
    View author publications

    Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Bruno Vargas Adorno
    View author publications

    Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Gabriel Crivellaro Gonçalves
    View author publications

    Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Luis Fernando Guedes Pinto
    View author publications

    Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

S.A. conceptualized the study, produced, processed and analysed data and reviewed and discussed results. J.P.M. conceptualized the study, reviewed and discussed results and wrote the text. L.F.G.P conceptualized the study, reviewed and discussed results and wrote the text. M.R. conceptualized the study and reviewed and discussed results. G.C.G. accessed, analysed and processed data. B.V.A. accessed, analysed and processed data, designed figures and reviewed and discussed results.

Corresponding authors

Correspondence to Silvana Amaral or Luis Fernando Guedes Pinto.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing interests.

Peer review

Peer review information

Nature Sustainability thanks Marcos B. Carlucci, Stuart Pimm, Yuanwei Qin and Edson Sano for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

Additional information

Publisher’s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Supplementary information

Supplementary Information

Supplementary Figs. 1–6, Tables 1–4 and Federation units abbreviations.

Reporting Summary

Supplementary Data 1

Data used to produce Supplementary Figs. 1–6.

Source data

Rights and permissions

Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Amaral, S., Metzger, J.P., Rosa, M. et al. Alarming patterns of mature forest loss in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Nat Sustain 8, 256–264 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-025-01508-w

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Version of record:

  • Issue date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-025-01508-w

This article is cited by

Search

Advanced search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing