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Nationally localized strategies for zero-carbon municipal solid waste management

Nature Sustainability volume 8, pages 1211–1222 (2025)Cite this article

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Abstract

Strategies for achieving net-zero emissions in municipal solid waste (MSW) management are crucial for a sustainable society, but insights that can guide global policy-making are still scarce. Here we provide a holistic view on this topic on a global scale. We first evaluated the spatiotemporal differences in global and national MSW-related emissions in 195 countries or regions between 1980 and 2022, and determined the spatiotemporal heterogeneity and drivers of global and national MSW-related greenhouse gas emissions. Then we performed prospective scenario-based simulations and found that all countries can achieve net zero in MSW management by 2100, but tailored measures are needed. We finally explored the strategies and challenges associated with achieving net zero via 1,024 scenarios while considering the combination of several measures from a local perspective. The results suggest that most developing countries should adjust their treatment measures and/or upgrade their technologies, whereas developed regions can achieve net zero with a single measure, particularly recycling, which has substantial mitigation potential. These insights can help to develop localized MSW management strategies for different countries and eventually contribute to achieving the net-zero target globally.

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Fig. 1: MSW-related GHG emissions worldwide and by individual countries from 1980 to 2022.
Fig. 2: Regional trends, sources and structures of emissions from 1980 to 2022.
Fig. 3: Effects of TSs on emissions across the 31 regions.
Fig. 4: Mitigation potential of different measures implemented regionally.
Fig. 5: Analysis of strategies for achieving net-zero emissions in 31 regions.

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Data availability

The data underpinning the findings of this study were primarily sourced from the official statistical agencies of respective countries (specific URLs are provided in the Supplementary Information). MSW-related data for all countries were retrieved from two authoritative repositories: the World Bank database (https://data.worldbank.org) and the United Nations Environment Programme database (https://unstats.un.org/unsd/envstats/). For European nations, MSW data were obtained from Eurostat (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/). OECD member states’ MSW data were drawn from the OECD Data Explorer (https://data-explorer.oecd.org/). Future socioeconomic trajectories were informed by the SSPs database (https://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at/SspDb/dsd?Action=htmlpage&page=about), and emission factors for processing activities were derived from the European Life Cycle Database (https://eplca.jrc.ec.europa.eu/globalLCA.html), 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (https://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/) and Carbon Footprint (https://www.carbonfootprint.com/international_electricity_factors.html). The base map is sourced from the Resource and Environmental Science Data Platform (ref. 43, https://www.resdc/). All data sources can be found in the Supplementary Information. For data processing, we employed R v.2.1.0, Stata v.18.5 and open LCA v.2.5.0. Visualization and figure preparation were carried out using Origin 2021, ArcMap v.10.8, Microsoft PowerPoint 2021, Adobe Photoshop CS5 and Adobe Illustrator 2024. Source data are provided with this paper.

Code availability

The computational code for MSW generation projecting, physical component modelling, model testing and figure generation is provided in the Supplementary Code. For technical inquiries, please contact the corresponding author.

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Acknowledgements

This study was supported by the Interdisciplinary High-Level Young Talent Cultivation Foundation (grant no. 333042007 to B.G.), the Blue-Blue Project (grant no. 137050480 to B.G.) and the High-Rank Talent (grant no. 137080223 to B.G.) from Yangzhou University.

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Author notes

  1. These authors contributed equally: Binxian Gu, Mange Zhang.

Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, China

    Binxian Gu, Mange Zhang, Minmin Zhou, Haixia Fu, Qingsong Hu, Yifei Wang, Wengang Zuo, Yunlong Li, Zhigang Wang, Wei Jiang & Yanchao Bai

  2. Environmental Research Center, Duke Kunshan University, Kunshan, China

    Chuanhui Gu

  3. Graduate School of Environmental Science, Okayama University, Okayama, Japan

    Takeshi Fujiwara

  4. Management School, Lancaster University, Lancaster, United Kingdom

    Lingxuan Liu

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Contributions

B.G. and M. Zhang contributed equally to this work, including methodology, formal analysis, writing (review and editing), visualization, formal analysis and funding acquisition. B.G., M. Zhang, M. Zhou, H.F., Q.H., C.G., Y.W., T.F., L.L., W.Z., Y.L., Z.W. and W.J. were involved in methodology, formal analysis and writing (review and editing). B.G., M. Zhang and Y.B. led the drafting of the manuscript. All authors contributed notably to the final writing of the manuscript.

Corresponding authors

Correspondence to Binxian Gu or Yanchao Bai.

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Nature Sustainability thanks Qingbin Song and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

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Supplementary information

Supplementary Information

Supplementary Figs. 1–25, Tables 1–24, Discussion and Methods.

Reporting Summary

Supplementary Data 1

Additional detailed information pertaining to sensitivity and uncertainty analyses.

Supplementary Code 1

The computational code for MSW generation projecting, physical component modelling, model testing and figures generation.

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Source Data Fig. 1

Statistical source data.

Source Data Fig. 2

Statistical source data.

Source Data Fig. 3

Statistical source data.

Source Data Fig. 4

Statistical source data.

Source Data Fig. 5

Statistical source data.

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Gu, B., Zhang, M., Zhou, M. et al. Nationally localized strategies for zero-carbon municipal solid waste management. Nat Sustain 8, 1211–1222 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-025-01624-7

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