Fig. 3: Transition matrix for the core triads.

Average probability transition matrix only for the core triads 1 in the Integrated Crisis Early Warning System (ICEWS) dataset by aggregating dynamic networks of a seasonally, b monthly, c biweekly, and d weekly period. The transition matrix is row-stochastic and its elements fall into (0, 1]. There are 138 possible triads; only the sub-matrix of the 10 operative triads is shown (given in Fig. 1e). e shows the probability of stationary distribution of the transition matrices, with the different aforementioned periods. The stationary distribution shows the state of the system under the condition that the Markov model persists. It appears that the probability transition matrix and stationary distribution are robust with respect to the choice of period length.