Fig. 2: Predicted relative ensemble rice yield anomaly.

Results are shown for the ECOWAS, Egypt, RSouthAf and SEA regions under different SSP × climate forcing scenarios for the 2050s compared with the expected median yield level. Values are calculated for the 2035–2065 time window (n = 30). For NoCC, historical variability estimates were used. A distinction is made between irrigated (blue) and rainfed (yellow) yields. Note that rainfed yields for Egypt are not included because of the limited extent of this system. Figures for the other regions can be found in Supplementary Fig. 7. The regions are numbered as follows: (1) AMU, (2) EAC, (3) ECCAS, (4) ECOWAS, (5) Egypt, (6) RCEAf, (7) RSouthAf and (8) SACU.