Fig. 1: Scenario inputs to iFEED from stakeholder engagement.

LT = low-transformation scenarios (low policy efficacy in Malawi; low market connectivity in Zambia; low technological development in Tanzania; low land reform in South Africa) and HT = high transformation. RCP2.6 = low climate risk. RCP8.5 = high climate risk. For arable area and pasture area, numbers given are percentage changes to land areas relative to a 1990–2010 baseline. The Malawi and Tanzania scenarios that feature agricultural area expansion use up all available land in mid-century (protected areas, urban areas and forests excluded), other than the Tanzania HT-RCP8.5 scenario where the livestock expansion was described by stakeholders to be smaller. Optimization to maximize domestic crop production was assumed in HT scenarios in Malawi, Tanzania and Zambia. Increasing crop diversity refers to maize areas decreasing and other crop areas expanding; decreasing crop diversity refers to maize areas increasing and other crop areas contracting. For each box: blue = increase; amber = no change; red = decrease. Note that the trade column refers to changes in imports/exports in the stakeholder-designed trade vignette, with the colour referring to increases/decreases in trade surplus, for example, whether imports increase more than exports.