Fig. 4: Effect of historical climate change (1972–2016) on wheat development and radiation-use efficiency across high-yielding environments in the Netherlands simulated with the WOFOST crop model for a modern cultivar.
Simulations assumed constant genetics and agronomic management throughout the simulation period (Methods). a–f, Data show changes in anthesis dates and number of grain-filling days (a,b), cumulative solar radiation during vegetative (emergence–anthesis) and reproductive stages (anthesis–maturity) in relation to the anthesis date and number of grain-filling days (c,d) and wheat Yp in relation to anthesis date and number of grain-filling days (e,f). Solid lines in a–e and f show linear regressions with slope statistically different from 0 (P < 0.05) and quadratic boundary functions fitted to the 90th quantile of the Yp data, respectively. Note that the y-axis in e and f starts at 6 t ha−1 and that fitted regression lines partially overlap for the central and northeast regions in c and northeast and southwest regions in e. DOY, day of the year.
