Fig. 1: Framework for assessing perceived feasibility of, and barriers to, deep mitigation.
From: Perceived feasibility and potential barriers of a net-zero system transition among Japanese experts
Proposition 1: feasibility is probabilistic, not binary, and thus, can construct a cumulative density function (CDF) of a greenhouse gas (GHG) emission goal (right, schematic CDF) A. Proposition 2: the CDF is affected by many different barriers (or soft constraints) B. Proposition 3: individual experts perceive future development of climate-related variables with large uncertainties, as illustrated by the futures cones (left), and the CDF of a GHG emission goal (i.e., perceived feasibility) for individual experts can be partially differentiated but are interrelated with their preferable future (right) C. Proposition 4: perceived feasibility is a subjective / Bayesian probability. It, as well as desirability, can be different across individuals, and thus, employing experts from broader disciplines can contribute to more contextualized feasibility assessments D.
