Fig. 2: Probability of drought recovery (PDR) using observational data (top), experimental data (middle), and model-based data (bottom).
From: Anthropogenic climate change has reduced drought recovery probabilities across the western US
Drought recovery defined as scPDSI >30th percentile for 1901–1980; horizontal gray line indicates unconditional probability based drought recovery definition. Probabilities refer to drought recovery in months following drought. For the observational and model-based data, recovery is calculated for all dates in which the region was in drought (scPDSI <10th). For the observational and experimental panels, stars indicate statistically significant differences (p < 0.05) between the observed and counterfactual traces (red, McNemar’s test) and the historical (1901–1980) and recent (2000–2021) traces (black, t-test). The bottom panels depict the multi-model mean PDR estimate. Statistically significant differences between the historical and recent traces are indicated by the presence of black stars, and are defined as the multi-model-mean recent trace falling outside of the 95% CI of the means for the historical trace. Note, all regions in model-based panels show significant reductions when defining 2000–2040 as the contemporary period (Supplementary Fig. 4).
