Fig. 5: Forecasting 2024 Antarctic winter sea ice condition using an ensemble forcast.
From: Understanding the drivers and predictability of record low Antarctic sea ice in austral winter 2023
Ensemble-mean SIC (A), SST (B) and SLP and wind speed (C) anomalies in JJA 2024 from CESM2-FORECAST-2024. In top row, magenta and black contours indicate climatological average (1980–2020) and JJA 2024 sea ice edge (15% concentration). Remaining spatial panels show the the difference between the ensemble members and ensemble-mean nudged to winds from 1998 (ensemble member with minimum negative SIA in JJA 2024), 2007 (ensemble member with maximum negative SIA in JJA 2024) and 2023 (right column) for each spatial field. Timeseries of SIA anomalies from CESM2-FORECAST-2024 (D), and regional SIA anomalies in JJA 2024 for each member in CESM2-FORECAST-2024 (E).
