Table 1 Climate system features relevant for evaluation in model-based drought analyses in Australia
Theme | Feature |
|---|---|
Precipitation | Statistical distribution of precipitation: Models need to simulate the observed mean and variance to correctly simulate drought intensity. Models need to accurately simulate the tails of the distribution (e.g. 10th and 90th percentiles) to get the correct frequency of low or no rain sufficient to establish a drought and allow it to persist and the correct frequency of heavy rain to terminate a drought. |
Persistence of precipitation anomalies: Models need to be able to simulate clusters of mostly dry periods that lack very wet periods, in order to correctly simulate drought frequency and duration. | |
Large-scale processes | Pacific and Indian Ocean SSTs and interactions between these ocean basins |
Seasonality and interannual variability in tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean SSTs | |
Relationships between modes of climate variability and Australian precipitation | |
Frequency of co-occurring phases of different modes | |
Location and intensity of subtropical jet and eddy-driven jet | |
Rossby wave-breaking characteristics and processes | |
Weather systems | Frequency, precipitation intensity and stationarity of co-occurring deep cyclones and adjacent anticyclones; may be part of a blocking system |
Frequency, precipitation intensity and stationarity of WCBs and PV streamers | |
Interactions between weather systems and the broader conditions in which they sit, such as the strength and locations of the jets and Rossby wave-breaking; interactions with larger-scale, lower-frequency ocean-atmosphere modes of variability; and interaction with smaller-scale land surface processes | |
Land processes | Evapotranspiration before and during droughts |
Evolution of soil moisture state during the various drought stages |
