Fig. 2: Observed and simulated rainfall and circulation patterns associated with the Durban floods of 11–12 April 2022.

a Two-day observed rainfall (mm) from ARC weather stations for 11 April at 00 GMT to 13 April 00 GMT, interpolated onto a 0.01° latitude-longitude grid; b corresponding rainfall totals from the ensemble median of the CCAM 3.8 km resolution simulations, interpolated onto a 0.05° latitude-longitude grid; c mean-sea-level pressure showing the position and intensity of the meso-scale low in ERA5 reanalysis data on 12 April 2022 at 12 GMT and d corresponding position and intensity of the meso-scale low in the CCAM control simulation. The red dot shows the location of Durban.