Fig. 4: Observed and simulated positions of the surface low that contributed to the Durban floods of 11–12 April 2022 and its projected displacement in the counterfactual cooler and future warmer worlds. | Communications Earth & Environment

Fig. 4: Observed and simulated positions of the surface low that contributed to the Durban floods of 11–12 April 2022 and its projected displacement in the counterfactual cooler and future warmer worlds.

From: Extreme event attribution using km-scale simulations reveals the pronounced role of climate change in the Durban floods

Fig. 4

The Météo-France RSMC estimated position of the low is shown by the green dot for 12 GMT on 12 April 2022, and the corresponding simulated positions of the low in the CCAM ensemble by black dots. The simulated positions of the lows in the 1979 cooler world (future warmer world), obtained by removing (adding) atmospheric and SST trends from (to) the 11 April 2022 00 GMT initial state, are indicated by blue (red) dots.

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