Fig. 8: Causal relationships derived from the PCMCI+ algorithm between runoff contributions and Budyko water-energy balance components (precipitation and potential evapotranspiration) across sub-catchments, as well as between runoff at upstream and downstream hydrological stations.

Subfigures (a), (b), and (c) respectively present the MCI causal association strength between runoff contributions of each sub-catchment and contemporaneous precipitation/potential evapotranspiration during (a) 1952–2021, (b) 1952–1986, and (c) 1987–2021, with missing values indicating non-significant causal association at the 0.05 significance level; Subfigures (d), (e) and (f) show the MCI causal association strength between contemporaneous streamflows of upstream and downstream hydrological stations for the same three periods, respectively.