Fig. 9: Conceptual framework illustrating the upstream-downstream interaction of runoff variation in large river basins under the context of climate change and human activities.

a The impacts and contribution characteristics of climatic changes and human activities on runoff variations in the upstream and downstream watersheds are described separately, along with the interactive relationship of water resource regulation between the upstream and downstream sub-catchments. b The human activities within the upstream and downstream sub-catchments of the basin and their contribution characteristics to river runoff variations are highlighted. Overall, the demand for water resources from human activities in each sub-catchment from the upstream to the downstream within the basin gradually increases. The combined effects of climate change and human activities along the way result in higher risks of runoff variation in the downstream areas. At the same time, the demand for water resources by human societies in the downstream regions will promote the regulation of water resources between the upstream and downstream sub-catchments within the basin, thereby affecting the runoff variations in both the upstream and downstream areas.