Fig. 3: Models cannot simulate prehistoric seasonal temperature gradient changes.
From: Common Era time-transgressive forcing of Caribbean water balance
A (black) 30-year running mean seasonal temperature gradient standardized relative to 1901–2004 from W2013, (red) same but for the Cariaco region in the past2k simulation from MPI-ESM (SSTs averaged for 9° to 12° N, –70° to –60° W), (blue) same as red but from CESM1. The dotted and dashed lines are the mean standardized seasonal temperature gradient from W2013 for 950–2008 CE and 0–950 CE, respectively. B (left) Differences in the Cariaco region standardized seasonal temperature gradient between 1985–2014 CE relative to 1901–1930 CE for observations67 (black dot) and historical simulations (n = 401, Table S2), (center) same but for 2071–2100 CE relative to 1901–1930 CE using SSP2-4.5 (n = 121, Table S2), (right) same as center but for SSP5-8.5 (n = 133, Table S2). The dashed-dotted line is the difference in the standardized seasonal temperature gradient between 950–2008 CE relative to 0–950 CE in W2013 (see dotted and dashed line in A) and the gray shading is the 25th–75th percentile of the differences between all 30-year periods in 950–2008 CE relative to those in 0–950 CE. The box plot whiskers show the full data range, the light shading is the 5th–95th percentile, the dark shading is the 25th–75th percentile, and the dark line is the median. Standardized seasonal temperature gradients are used throughout for comparability between the proxy record (from a single location) and the regularly gridded observations and simulations.
