Fig. 3: Fuel demand of commercial aviation in Europe.

Results for 2024-2070 under the nine selected scenarios, which vary the air traffic volume with the level of aircraft (AC) technological improvements (indicated by the line colour: blue, orange, or red) and an evolving fuel mix (indicated by the line style: dashed, dash-dotted, or solid). a Fossil kerosene consumed by aircraft. b AAF consumed by aircraft (saturated lines) and, for scenarios which include hydrogen-powered aircraft, the hydrogen consumed as non-drop-in AAF (desaturated lines). c The hydrogen production required when accounting for the supply chain of both AAF types considered. This panel also indicates 20% of the European Union’s 2030 target hydrogen supply (the total consisting of 10 million tonnes production and 10 million tonnes import)⁷⁴ (lower dotted black line) and 20% of European hydrogen production in 2050, following a net-zero emissions scenario (the total being 44 million tonnes)²¹ (upper dotted black line). Note that the scenarios where the share of AAF is not increased (i.e., those represented with a dashed line) remain close to zero in the two lower panels.