Fig. 4: CO2 emissions and contribution to temperature change of commercial aviation in Europe.

Results for 2024-2070 under the nine selected scenarios, which vary the air traffic volume with the level of aircraft (AC) technological improvements (indicated by the line colour: blue, orange, or red) and an evolving fuel mix (indicated by the line style: dashed, dash-dotted, or solid). The dotted black line represents the CO2 limit described by ICAO and IATA. a Total emissions, considering only CO2. b Temperature change from aviation based on CO2 emissions alone (saturated lines and dotted black line) and based on multiple climate forcers, notably including NOx and persistent contrails (desaturated lines).