Fig. 6: Changes in crop yields associated with tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) temperature variations.

Distribution of yield anomalies for wheat (a) and corn (b) during periods of tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) warming (blue, > +0.5 s.d.) and cooling (orange, < −0.5 s.d.) from 1982 to 2018, after removing the effect of Niño 3.4 variability. The analysis is based on 10,000 bootstrap resamples, which provides a robust statistical assessment of the TIO-US yield relationship. Box-and-whisker plots indicate the minimum, lower quartile, median, upper quartile, and maximum values for each condition.