Fig. 4: Detection of a change in trend in the ensemble mean (EM) thermosteric time series over 2004–2020 using the BEAST tool.
From: Abrupt trend change in global mean sea level and its components in the early 2010s
a Original time series. b Probability of trend change with a peak at 2013.0 (black cross) and a total probability of 99% between 2012.6 and 2013.3. c Linearly detrended thermosteric sea level. d Probability of trend change with a peak at 2013.0 (black cross) and a total probability of 100% between 2012.6 and 2013.4. Orange lines represent linear trends.
