Abstract
Abrupt changes at decadal time scale are recurrent events in the modern climate system. Using multiple trend-change detection methods, here we report such an abrupt trend change in the early 2010s in the altimetry-based global mean sea level record, as well as in its thermal and mass components. Abrupt trend change in the mass component is mostly due to terrestrial water storage and to a lesser extent to ice sheet melting. The linear rate of rise of the global mean sea level increases abruptly from 2.9 ± 0.22 mm yr−1 over 1993–2011 to 4.1 ± 0.25 mm yr−1 over 2012–2024. Abrupt trend changes in numerous climate parameters have also been reported in the early 2010s, suggesting a more global phenomenon. Internal climate variability is likely the main driver of the early 2010s sharp change observed in sea level and components, although one cannot totally exclude any additional contribution from increased radiative forcing.
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Data availability
The DT2024 gridded altimetry data set is available from the Copernicus web site (https://climate.copernicus.eu (https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.4c328c78)). The DT2021 global mean sea level time series is available at https://www.aviso.altimetry.fr/en/data/products/ocean-indicators-products/mean-sea-level/data-acces.html. The Argo data are available from the https://sio-argo.ucsd.edu and https://apdrc.soest.hawaii.edu/projects/argo websites. The OHC data are available from Magellium/LEGOS at https://doi.org/10.24400/527896/A01-2020.003. The glacier mass balance data are available from Copernicus at https://doi.org/10.24381/CDS.BA597449. The IMBIE ice sheet mass balance is available at https://doi.org/10.5285/77B64C55-7166-4A06-9DEF-2E400398E452.
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Acknowledgements
This study is partly funded by the ESA Climate Change Initiative Sea Level project (https://climate.esa.int/en/projects/sea-level). L.L. is supported by this project (grant number 4000126561/19/I-NB).
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A.C. and L.L. designed the study. L.L. and J.O. analyzed the data. A.C., L.L., and J.O. wrote a first version of the manuscript. All co-authors, A.C., L.L., J.O., M.P., S.J., S.C., J.F.L., F.B., R.A., contributed to discussing the results, to editing and final writing of the manuscript.
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Communications Earth and Environment thanks John Church, Christian Franzke and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work. Primary Handling Editors: Nicole Khan and Alice Drinkwater. [A peer review file is available].
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Leclercq, L., Oelsmann, J., Cazenave, A. et al. Abrupt trend change in global mean sea level and its components in the early 2010s. Commun Earth Environ (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-03149-5
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-03149-5
