Fig. 3: LAVESI-FIRE simulated burned area in comparison to the charcoal composite curve.
From: Human activity may have influenced Holocene wildfire dynamics in boreal eastern Siberia
On a longer multi-millennial scale both time series are highly correlated, but on a shorter multi-centennial scale their correlation turns negative in the Mid-Holocene. A Climate forcing data for LAVESI-FIRE simulations from MPI-ESM-CR116,117 (smoothed annual June, July, and August mean temperature and precipitation sum) and the derived annual fire probability rating (FPRann)42. B Comparison between filtered annually simulated burned area and the charcoal composite curve. The green line represents the median of ten smoothed simulation repeats, while the transparent band marks the interquartile range. Note that both time series are slightly truncated due to edge-effects of the filtering procedure. C Rolling window correlation coefficient (r) between simulated burned area (median) and the charcoal composite curve (mean) for window widths ranging from 110 to 10,010 years. Isolines and colors mark correlation coefficient ranges (red = positive correlation; blue = negative correlation). White shading marks non-significant correlation coefficients (p > 0.05, two-sided Monte Carlo-based significance test accounting for autocorrelation).
