Abstract
Enhanced weathering in agriculture is a potential gigatonne-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) pathway, but its potential remains difficult to constrain. We used a formal expert elicitation process to estimate CDR potential and efficiency, uncertainties, and key data needs for six feedstocks. Expert opinion of global potential varied by feedstock, with estimates averaging 0.2-0.7 Gt CO2e/yr, but with a wide range (from a source to greater than 5 Gt CO2e/yr removal). When focusing on the American Midwest (pH 5.5-6), carbon dioxide removal efficiency, meaning the fraction of potential ultimately realized, ranged from 27-39%. Key uncertainties included feedstock availability, calcite saturation, and deep soil/freshwater emission pathways. There is a need for empirical data in key stages, with potential to leverage liming data where appropriate. Overall, there appears to be strong potential CDR at broad scales. However, continued research is necessary to build confidence when quantifying that potential and actual removals.
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Data availability
Full dataset of individual elicitation responses (anonymized) is available on Zenodo83.
Code availability
R code to replicate the analysis/graphing is available on Zenodo83.
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Acknowledgements
B.B. was supported by gifts from Christina and Jeffrey Bird, and Mary Anne Baker and G. Leonard Baker, Jr. E.O. and D.G. were supported by King Philanthropies. M.A., S.Z., J.H., N.P., and T.J.S. acknowledge funding from the Department of Energy (DOE) Earthshot Initiative (#DE-SC0024709). T.J.S. acknowledges funding from the Swiss National Science Foundation (P500PN_210790).
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B.B., D.R.G., M.G.M., and N.J.P. conceptualized the study. C.D., K.M., R.B.N., T.R., T.J.S., S.V., B.G.W., M.A., S.C., L.A.D., J.H., B.Z.H., Y.K., A.K., T.K., I.M.P., N.J.P., C.R.P., S.W.L., and S.Z. participated in the elicitation. B.B., D.R.G., and E.E. led the data analysis and initial drafting. R.B.N. and C.D. developed figures. All authors contributed to the final document writing and contextualization.
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The authors declare no conflict of interest. N.J.P. was a co-founder of Lithos Carbon but has no financial ties to the company. C.D. acts as a scientific advisor to the Rock Flour Company but does not receive financial compensation for the role.
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Communications Earth and Environment thanks Mardin Abdalqadir, Holly Buck, and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work. Primary Handling Editors: Mojtaba Fakhraee and Martina Grecequet. A peer review file is available.
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Buma, B., Dietzen, C., Gordon, D.R. et al. Expert elicitation on agricultural enhanced weathering reveals carbon dioxide removal potential and uncertainties in loss pathways. Commun Earth Environ (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03375-5
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03375-5
