Distinct regimes of precipitation changes across Europe and the Mediterranean under global warming

Abstract

Climate change is significantly altering regional precipitation patterns across Europe and the Mediterranean. We analyze daily precipitation distribution changes in a 15-member Euro-CORDEX ensemble, through a diagnostic framework that separates occurrence changes, wet-days intensity shifts and distortions. At +4 ^∘C global warming, Northern Europe shows a robust intensification of precipitation, driven by both higher occurrence and stronger events. Conversely, the Mediterranean exhibits a dominant drying signal, primarily due to fewer wet-days, which impacts daily precipitation distribution even for heavy rainfall. Transitional zones in the northern Mediterranean reveal “U-shape” regimes, with rising extremes but declining moderate rain. Comparing with ERA5 reanalysis over the past, low model agreement in the south highlights higher uncertainty in the Mediterranean region. The timing of robust signal emergence varies: Northern Europe shows robust patterns from +1 ^∘C, while the Mediterranean exhibits delays until +3-4 ^∘C. These findings are essential for informing risk-based adaptation strategies.