Abstract
Global warming is expected to shift crop suitability northward, but the role of permafrost remains unclear. Here we integrate permafrost degradation impacts to project the suitability of seven major crops across the Northern Hemisphere (30°N–83°N). By the end of the century, the northern boundary of crop climatic suitability zones shifts northward by ~331 km and ~739 km under the SSP1–2.6 and SSP5–8.5 scenarios, respectively. Considering this shift and permafrost degradation, zones with persistent near-surface permafrost remain limited (~5%) but vary widely (3–19%) across different permafrost degradation assumptions. By the end of the century, newly emerging frontiers of climatically feasible agriculture reach 4.86 and 11.64 million km² under SSP1–2.6 and SSP5–8.5, respectively, of which 29% and 18% may remain unsuitable for cultivation due to persistent permafrost thaw disturbances. Our results indicate that permafrost is a non-negligible constraint on the northward shift of climatically feasible agricultural frontiers.
Acknowledgements
We are grateful to Hui Ju, Yang Yang, and Renjie Hou for their valuable feedback on the conceptualization and formal analysis.
Funding
S.X. and C.X. disclose support for the research of this work from the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2022YFF0801903) and the Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Beijing Normal University (2022-GJTD-01).
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Xu, S., Xiao, C., Jägermeyr, J. et al. Northern permafrost represents a limit on the northward shift of climatically feasible agricultural frontiers under future warming. Commun Earth Environ (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03702-w
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03702-w
