Fig. 3: The epidemic size predictions for documented infections and deaths by healthcare area.

The gray lines are the observed documented infections (a) and deaths (b) and the yellow and red lines are the predicted infections, with ribbons for the IQR and 90% PI. Vertical lines show key analysis time points: when vaccination started (solid), when 70% of residents received the first dose and when 70% of residents received the second dose. Negative predictions are truncated and plotted as 0 for consistency.