Fig. 4: Changes in endemicity and effects of interventions conducted from 1995 to 2010.
From: Malaria elimination on Hainan Island despite climate change
a P. vivax and b P. falciparum. Bars represent the predicted cumulative number of clinical malaria cases averted by interventions at the end of each year. The specific contribution of each intervention is distinguished after accounting for the effect of long-term climate forcing using mechanistic models. Mathematical models were fit to epidemiological data collected from 1995 to 2010, as well as ITNs, IRS, and MDA interventions. See the Methods for a detailed description of the mathematical models. c The time (years) required to control the annual malaria prevalence <0.1% for P. vivax and d P. falciparum. Malaria prevalence as a function of ITNs and MDA interventions in the simulation beginning in 1995. Estimates were obtained with all other covariates set to original values, such as climate conditions and population.
