Fig. 4: Parsimonious signature prognostic performance for incident TB in people without HIV.

a Representative receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves depicting prognostic performance (area under the curve, AUC, with 95% CI) of the parsimonious signature with the best prognostic performance (Penn-Nicholson6/RISK6 signature) for incident TB diagnosed on two or more liquid culture-positive or Xpert MTB/RIF-positive sputum samples (primary endpoint) through 6, 12, and 15 months follow-up in the CORTIS-01 study of people without HIV. ROC curves for the other signatures are in the Supplementary Information (Fig. S7). The shaded areas represent the 95% CIs. The solid box depicts the optimal criteria (90% sensitivity and 90% specificity) and the dashed box depicts the minimal criteria (75% sensitivity and 75% specificity) set out in the WHO Target Product Profile for an incipient TB test²¹. b Summary of signature prognostic performance in the order of primary endpoint AUC estimates through 12 months follow-up. The prognostic AUC estimates through 6 and 15 months are also shown. The midline indicates the AUC estimate, the error bars indicate the 95% CIs, and the black dashed line indicates an AUC cut-off of 0.5.