Fig. 2: Posterior daily infections and IFR estimates from simulated data without seroreversion.

A Using simulated data, we created three outbreak scenarios where individuals who seroconverted could not serorevert: exponential growth, outbreak control, and second wave (grey lines are simulated infection input) under two different serologic tests (Sensitivity: 85%; Specificity 95% vs. Sensitivity: 85%; Specificity 99%). The blue shading represents 100 posterior draws of the modelled infection curve, where draws were selected based on their posterior probability. B The inferred median and 95% credible intervals (blue) versus the simulated true IFR (grey, dashed line) with two different serologic tests, in the oldest age group. For all epidemic scenarios considered, we assume that there are two seroprevalence surveys that range over days 120–130 and 170–180 and that 0.1% of the population was sampled.