Fig. 3: Fraction of new cases caused by the unvaccinated and vaccinated population for varying age-independent vaccine efficacy s.
From: Germany’s fourth COVID-19 wave was mainly driven by the unvaccinated
We consider an optimistic scenario with constant r = 0.1 and b = 3/2 (solid lines), and a pessimistic estimation in which r and b decrease according to r = s/10 and b = s/2 + 1 (dashed lines). As long as s remains larger than approximately 22% (optimistic, \(r^{\prime} =40 \% ^{\prime}\)) or 41% (pessimistic, \(r^{\prime} =20 \%\)), the unvaccinated minority still causes the majority of infections, see also Supplementary Methods, Sec. 1.3.1 and Sec. 1.3.7.
