Fig. 2: Estimates from chain-binomial household transmission model.

a Estimated odds ratios (adjusted) of the transmission risk factors fitted to 304 index cases and their 719 contacts. Solid dots and horizontal lines represent point estimates and 95% confidence intervals. Circles represent the reference class. b Baseline transmission risks from the index case and seropositive household members as well as baseline risks of acquiring infection from the community. c–f Distribution (histogram) of model projected community infection risk and household secondary attack rate across the study participants. c Distribution of cumulative community infection risks* d Distribution of the secondary attack rate attributable to seropositive household members who are not the index cases e Distribution of the secondary attack rate attributable to the index case. f Distribution of the secondary attack rate by the index case in a counterfactual scenario where no preventive measures (PM) were taken after diagnosis of the index case. g Distribution of the secondary attack rate by the index case in a counterfactual scenario where all preventive measures (PM) were taken after diagnosis of the index case. (*All results are from model with best fit to the data: model 15, Table S1).