Fig. 4: Tissue or endpoint contributions to the total risk of exposure-induced death % (REID%) for clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP) carriers compared to the average United States background never-smoker population.

Point estimates (a, b) and percent contribution (c, d) to the total risk of exposure-induced death (REID) by tissue (or endpoint) of the average United States background never-smoker population compared to clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP) carriers for a Mars design reference mission (DRM) scenario. Astronauts in a 20 g/cm² spherical aluminum shield are exposed to the 2001 galactic cosmic ray (GCR) at solar maximum (MAX) and the 1972 Solar Particle Event (SPE). Uncertainty propagation was implemented with a Monte Carlo sampling size of N = 100,000 for each attained age, and point estimates of the REID are found by using the most likely values of uncertainty distribution parameters. REID% point estimates of hematologic cancer (HC), coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, and solid cancers for males (a) and females (b) and percent contribution to the total REID% for males (c) and females (d). REID% point estimates (a, b) for the unmodified (unmod) background are shown with solid lines and symbols, whereas point estimates for the CHIP-modified background are shown with dashed lines and symbols. HC is indicated with red circles; CHD with green squares; stroke with blue triangles; and total with black diamonds. The solid un-hashed bars (c, d) represent calculations with unmodified background mortality rates, and the hashed bars represent CHIP-modified background mortality rates. In panels (c) and (d), HC is indicated in red; CHD in green; stroke in blue; and solid cancers in purple.