Fig. 1: The estimated effect of vaccination on incidence in sewersheds of Jefferson County, KY (USA).

The dark green line is the factual SVI2RT model estimated incidence (with vaccination), and the light green line is the corresponding counterfactual estimated incidence with vaccination effect zeroed out. The shaded areas represent 95% credible intervals. The panels compare the vaccination effect in Jefferson County (a) as well as stratified by sewershed (b–d).