Fig. 3: Results for Aotearoa New Zealand data from 1 January 2022 to 31 March 2023.
a Instantaneous reproduction number Rt, b relative case ascertainment rate (compared to the central estimate on 1 April 2022), c wastewater data Wt measured in genome copies per person per day and d reported cases Ct. Results assume the average total shedding per infection does not vary over time (α = 3 × 109). Solid lines present central estimates. Shaded regions show 95% credible intervals on the value of the hidden states (subplots a and b) and 95% credible intervals on the expected reported cases and wastewater data (darker shaded regions in subplots c and d) and 95% credible intervals on the prediction distribution for wastewater data and reported cases (lighter shaded regions in subplots c and d). Black dots show the observed data.
