Table 2 Central estimates and 95% credible intervals for estimated model parameters in each time period

From: Jointly estimating epidemiological dynamics of Covid-19 from case and wastewater data in Aotearoa New Zealand

Period starting

σR

σCAR

kc

kw(×10−6)

1 Jan 2022

0.12 (0.069, 0.21)

0.03 (0.017, 0.043)

31 (20, 49)

1.5 (1.1, 2.0)

1 Apr 2022

0.069 (0.041, 0.12)

0.0099 (0.0053, 0.014)

170 (100, 250)

4.8 (3.2, 6.8)

1 Jul 2022

0.037 (0.02, 0.066)

0.0063 (0.0018, 0.01)

330 (220, 400)

4.8 (3.3, 6.5)

1 Oct 2022

0.038 (0.02, 0.068)

0.011 (0.0073, 0.014)

170 (110, 270)

7.2 (4.7, 10.0)

1 Jan 2023

0.038 (0.018, 0.073)

0.0093 (0.0041, 0.015)

150 (84, 330)

6.8 (4.4, 10.0)

  1. Dates in the ‘Period’ column are the start date for the three-month period. All outputs presented to 2 s.f. Higher values of σR and σCAR suggest Rt and CARt vary faster. Higher values of kc and kw indicate a lower variance in the corresponding observation distribution. Note a different prior distribution was used for σCAR in the first period (see Supplementary Material Section 2.5), which may also impact estimates of other parameters in this period.
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