Fig. 2: Key model estimates.

a shows estimated infection rates; b shows estimated population immunity dynamics; and (c) shows estimated virus transmissibility. In (a), colored bars show estimated median weekly infection rates, for each variant (see legends). In (b), we overlay estimated population susceptibility [left y-axis; blue line = median, blue areas = 50% (darker) and 95% (lighter) CrIs], and proxies of cumulative infection (colored stacked bars from top to bottom, right y-axis; same legends as in A for different variants) and vaccine-induced immunity against infection (open bars; see Methods). In (c), we show estimated virus transmissibility [left y-axis; blue line = median, blue areas = 50% (darker) and 95% (lighter) CrIs] and infection rates [boxplot and right y-axis; middle bar = median, edges = 50% CrIs, and whiskers = 95% CrIs] for the corresponding weeks.