Fig. 2: Associations of T2D-PRSs with poor sleep phenotypes, estimated mediation effect by OSA, causal effects of T2D on OSA and OSA on T2D.

a Estimated OR per 1 SD increase of mgbPRSsum in association with poor sleep health at baseline in HCHS/SOL individuals. The comparison categories are individuals without the stated poor sleep phenotype (e.g., short sleep versus individuals who do not have short sleep, etc.). b Distribution of mgbPRSsum computed over all individuals with genetic data and DM in visit 2 (N = 2483), horizontal dashed lines denote quantiles of the PRS values Q₀–Q₄. c Estimated percents of risk mediation by mild-to-severe OSA in the association between T2D-PRS and incident DM in individuals who participated at the second visit to a clinic (N = 6291). Darker shades correspond to higher estimates. Estimates are provided for set values of the T2D-PRS, selected according to the distribution quantiles. Significance codes: 0 >= ‘***’ <0.001 >= ‘**’ <0.01 >= ‘*’ <0.05 ‘’ <0.1. d Estimated causal effect of T2D on OSA based on SNPs selected using p-value threshold <5 × 10⁻⁸ in BMI-adjusted and BMI-unadjusted T2D GWASs. e Estimated causal effect of OSA on T2D based on SNPs selected using p-value threshold <5 × 10⁻⁸ in BMI-adjusted and BMI-unadjusted OSA GWASs. Estimates are provided from a few MR methods (primary method: IVW, secondary: MR-PRESSO, and MR-RAPS), denoted by different colors. Results are not presented for MR-PRESSO in panel (d) for estimated effect of OSA on T2D in BMI adjusted analysis because they were the same as the results for the IVW method. Throughout, error bars represent 95% confidence intervals. All models were adjusted for age, sex, BMI, study center and 5 genetic PCs. T2D type 2 diabetes, OSA obstructive sleep apnea, IVW inverse variance weighted, BMI body mass index, AUC Area Under the ROC (receiver operating characteristic) Curve, SD standard deviation, SNPs Single-nucleotide polymorphism, GWAS genome wide association study