Fig. 1: Components of the infection model and related distributions.
a Infected agents develop symptoms after an incubation period. Following symptom development, they recover by passing through five infectious compartments, during which they may be diagnosed at a rate λdiag. b Comparison of the distribution of incubation periods from76 with the distribution used in the model. c Comparison of the distribution of detectable virus in rectum and semen, based on data from77, with the infection probability distribution used in the model. d Inter-host dynamics are modeled by a temporal adaptive network, where contact addition and removal follow Poisson processes. The disease state influences contact patterns: diagnosed agents are removed until recovery, and contacts are spontaneously reduced (behavior change BC) to prevent infection. S, I, D, R denote the susceptible, infectious, diagnosed and recovered compartment, respectively. e Distribution of expected contacts over a three-month period. The inset shows the contact distribution on a logarithmic scale (base 10). The average degree distribution is 3.17 contacts per three months, for the active population (without zero contacts) the average is 4.93 contacts per three months.
