Fig. 4: Comparison of vaccination and infection dynamics.

a The mean proportion of vaccinated, infected, and naive individuals within the high contact group (two or more contacts in three weeks, depicted in light blue) and the low contact group (less than two contacts in three weeks, depicted in dark blue). The error bars show the 95% PI, which are based on 143 simulations. Agents who are both infected and vaccinated are counted as infected. b Distribution of the number of secondary cases per infected individual, represented by blue dots; and size of infection trees, indicating the number of cases traceable to a single importation event, represented by orange dots. c Cumulative share of cases traceable to the top imports. The plot illustrates the mean proportion of cases attributed to the import with the most cases, followed by the combined share from the two top imports, and continues in this pattern. Error bars represent the 95% PI, which are based on 143 simulations.