Table 1 Estimated excess mortality in CVDs in the United States from March 2020 to March 2022
Periodsa | No. of observed deaths | No. of expected deaths (95% CI) | No. of excess deaths (95% CI) | Weekly average no. of estimated excess deaths (95% CI) | Excess mortality per million persons (95% CI) | Excess (%) (95% CI)b |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CVDs | ||||||
Overall | 1,946,662 | 1,856,502 (1,855,053; 1,858,032) | 90,160 (88,630; 91,609) | 835 (821; 848) | 274.8 (270.1; 279.2) | 4.9 (4.8; 5.0) |
2020–2021 | 934,004 | 886,301 (885,351; 887,369) | 47,703 (46,635; 48,653) | 917 (897; 936) | 145.9 (142.7; 148.8) | 5.4 (5.3; 5.5) |
2021–2022 | 1,012,658 | 970,201 (968,977; 971,488) | 42,457 (41,170; 43,681) | 758 (735; 780) | 129.0 (125.1; 132.7) | 4.4 (4.3; 4.5) |
Wave I | 251,248 | 238,595 (238,138; 239,056) | 12,653 (12,192; 13,110) | 904 (871; 936) | 38.7 (37.3; 40.1) | 5.3 (5.1; 5.5) |
Wave II | 287,889 | 268,278 (267,778; 268,740) | 19,611 (19,149; 20,111) | 1,154 (1,126; 1,183) | 60.1 (58.6; 61.6) | 7.3 (7.1; 7.5) |
Wave III | 685,194 | 671,734 (670,796; 672,696) | 13,460 (12,498; 14,398) | 354 (329; 379) | 41.0 (38.1; 43.9) | 2.0 (1.9; 2.1) |
Wave IV | 387,959 | 358,316 (357,662; 358,935) | 29,643 (29,024; 30,297) | 1,347 (1,319; 1,377) | 90.2 (88.3; 92.2) | 8.3 (8.1; 8.5) |
Wave V | 334,372 | 319,579 (318,732; 320,353) | 14,793 (14,019; 15,640) | 870 (825; 920) | 44.8 (42.5; 47.4) | 4.6 (4.3; 4.9) |
Hypertensive disease | ||||||
Overall | 259,073 | 236,790 (236,491; 237,113) | 22,283 (21,960; 22,582) | 206 (203; 209) | 67.9 (66.9; 68.8) | 9.4 (9.3; 9.5) |
2020–2021 | 123,134 | 109,831 (109,641; 110,048) | 13,303 (13,086; 13,493) | 256 (252; 259) | 40.7 (40.0; 41.3) | 12.1 (11.9; 12.3) |
2021–2022 | 135,939 | 126,959 (126,700; 127,236) | 8,980 (8,703; 9,239) | 160 (155; 165) | 27.3 (26.4; 28.1) | 7.1 (6.9; 7.3) |
Wave I | 32,865 | 29,025 (28,935; 29,116) | 3,840 (3,749; 3,930) | 274 (268; 281) | 11.8 (11.5; 12.0) | 13.2 (12.9; 13.5) |
Wave II | 37,590 | 32,981 (32,881; 33,074) | 4,609 (4,516; 4,709) | 271 (266; 277) | 14.1 (13.8; 14.4) | 14.0 (13.7; 14.3) |
Wave III | 90,663 | 85,335 (85,143; 85,533) | 5,328 (5,130; 5,520) | 140 (135; 145) | 16.2 (15.6; 16.8) | 6.2 (6.0; 6.4) |
Wave IV | 52,211 | 46,583 (46,445; 46,715) | 5,628 (5,496; 5,766) | 256 (250; 262) | 17.1 (16.7; 17.5) | 12.1 (11.8; 12.4) |
Wave V | 45,744 | 42,867 (42,683; 43,036) | 2,877 (2,708; 3,061) | 169 (159; 180) | 8.7 (8.2; 9.3) | 6.7 (6.3; 7.1) |
IHD | ||||||
Overall | 791,735 | 747,553 (746,861; 748,283) | 44,182 (43,452; 44,874) | 409 (402; 416) | 134.7 (132.4; 136.8) | 5.9 (5.8; 6.0) |
2020–2021 | 385,660 | 359,873 (359,416; 360,388) | 25,787 (25,272; 26,244) | 496 (486; 505) | 78.9 (77.3; 80.3) | 7.2 (7.1; 7.3) |
2021–2022 | 406,075 | 387,680 (387,101; 388,289) | 18,395 (17,786; 18,974) | 328 (318; 339) | 55.9 (54.0; 57.6) | 4.7 (4.5; 4.9) |
Wave I | 105,563 | 97,203 (96,983; 97,426) | 8,360 (8,137; 8,580) | 597 (581; 613) | 25.6 (24.9; 26.3) | 8.6 (8.4; 8.8) |
Wave II | 118,543 | 108,862 (108,622; 109,086) | 9,681 (9,457; 9,921) | 569 (556; 584) | 29.6 (29.0; 30.4) | 8.9 (8.7; 9.1) |
Wave III | 278,844 | 271,128 (270,680; 271,590) | 7,716 (7,254; 8,164) | 203 (191; 215) | 23.5 (22.1; 24.9) | 2.8 (2.6; 3.0) |
Wave IV | 155,190 | 142,970 (142,661; 143,263) | 12,220 (11,927; 12,529) | 555 (542; 570) | 37.2 (36.3; 38.1) | 8.5 (8.3; 8.7) |
Wave V | 133,595 | 127,389 (126,990; 127,753) | 6,206 (5,842; 6,605) | 365 (344; 389) | 18.8 (17.7; 20.0) | 4.9 (4.6; 5.2) |
Heart failure | ||||||
Overall | 177,317 | 189,516 (189,294; 189,752) | −12,199 (−12,435; −11,977) | −113 (−115; −111) | −37.2 (−37.9; −36.5) | −6.4 (−6.5; −6.3) |
2020–2021 | 84,329 | 89,317 (89,174; 89,478) | −4,988 (−5,149; −4,845) | −96 (−99; −93) | −15.3 (−15.8; −14.8) | −5.6 (−5.8; −5.4) |
2021–2022 | 92,988 | 100,200 (100,011; 100,398) | −7,212 (−7,410; −7,023) | −129 (−132; −125) | −21.9 (−22.5; −21.3) | −7.2 (−7.4; −7.0) |
Wave I | 23,503 | 24,302 (24,233; 24,373) | −799 (−870; −730) | −57 (−62; −52) | −2.4 (−2.7; −2.2) | −3.3 (−3.6; −3.0) |
Wave II | 25,690 | 26,778 (26,703; 26,848) | −1,088 (−1,158; −1,013) | −64 (−68; −60) | −3.3 (−3.5; −3.1) | −4.1 (−4.4; −3.8) |
Wave III | 61,560 | 68,624 (68,483; 68,770) | −7,064 (−7,210; −6,923) | −186 (−190; −182) | −21.5 (−22.0; −21.1) | −10.3 (−10.5; −10.1) |
Wave IV | 35,708 | 36,483 (36,384; 36,578) | −775 (−870; −676) | −35 (−40; −31) | −2.4 (−2.6; −2.1) | −2.1 (−2.4; −1.8) |
Wave V | 30,856 | 33,329 (33,197; 33,449) | −2,473 (−2,593; −2,341) | −145 (−153; −138) | −7.5 (−7.9; −7.1) | −7.4 (−7.8; −7.0) |
Cerebrovascular disease | ||||||
Overall | 338,832 | 321,674 (321,364; 322,001) | 17,158 (16,831; 17,468) | 159 (156; 162) | 52.3 (51.3; 53.2) | 5.3 (5.2; 5.4) |
2020–2021 | 161,376 | 153,192 (152,990; 153,422) | 8,184 (7,954; 8,386) | 157 (153; 161) | 25.0 (24.3; 25.7) | 5.3 (5.2; 5.4) |
2021–2022 | 177,456 | 168,481 (168,221; 168,756) | 8,975 (8,700; 9,235) | 160 (155; 165) | 27.3 (26.4; 28.1) | 5.3 (5.1; 5.5) |
Wave I | 42,331 | 40,769 (40,673; 40,866) | 1,562 (1,465; 1,658) | 112 (105; 118) | 4.8 (4.5; 5.1) | 3.8 (3.6; 4.0) |
Wave II | 50,081 | 46,768 (46,659; 46,867) | 3,313 (3,214; 3,422) | 195 (189; 201) | 10.1 (9.8; 10.5) | 7.1 (6.9; 7.3) |
Wave III | 120,154 | 115,898 (115,701; 116,101) | 4,256 (4,053; 4,453) | 112 (107; 117) | 13.0 (12.4; 13.6) | 3.7 (3.5; 3.9) |
Wave IV | 67,843 | 63,098 (62,955; 63,234) | 4,745 (4,609; 4,888) | 216 (210; 222) | 14.4 (14.0; 14.9) | 7.5 (7.3; 7.7) |
Wave V | 58,423 | 55,142 (54,963; 55,307) | 3,281 (3,116; 3,460) | 193 (183; 204) | 9.9 (9.4; 10.5) | 6.0 (5.7; 6.3) |
Other diseases of the circulatory system | ||||||
Overall | 379,705 | 365,650 (365300, 366019) | 14,055 (13,686; 14,405) | 130 (127; 133) | 42.8 (41.7; 43.9) | 3.8 (3.7; 3.9) |
2020–2021 | 179,505 | 175,500 (175,269; 175,759) | 4,005 (3,746; 4,236) | 77 (72; 81) | 12.3 (11.5; 13.0) | 2.3 (2.2; 2.4) |
2021–2022 | 200,200 | 190,150 (189,856; 190,459) | 10,050 (9,741; 10,344) | 179 (174; 185) | 30.5 (29.6; 31.4) | 5.3 (5.1; 5.5) |
Wave I | 46,986 | 47,584 (47,472; 47,697) | −598 (−711; −486) | −43 (−51; −35) | −1.8 (−2.2; −1.5) | −1.3 (−1.5; −1.1) |
Wave II | 55,985 | 53,274 (53,152; 53,388) | 2,711 (2,597; 2,833) | 159 (153; 167) | 8.3 (8.0; 8.7) | 5.1 (4.9; 5.3) |
Wave III | 133,973 | 132,295 (132,070; 132,526) | 1,678 (1,447; 1,903) | 44 (38; 50) | 5.1 (4.4; 5.8) | 1.3 (1.1; 1.5) |
Wave IV | 77,007 | 70,332 (70,174; 70,481) | 6,675 (6,526; 6,833) | 303 (297; 311) | 20.3 (19.8; 20.8) | 9.5 (9.3; 9.7) |
Wave V | 65,754 | 62,165 (61,964; 62,350) | 3,589 (3,404; 3,790) | 211 (200; 223) | 10.9 (10.3; 11.5) | 5.8 (5.5; 6.1) |
